Toronto the bubbliest City for housing market in the World!

In many cities, there is not enough housing supply. And by its very nature, supply cannot be expanded at will in the short term. Thanks to urbanization, this means property prices should rise significantly in the long run—more or less summing up the common narrative on the value growth of urban homes. The strong real estate boom of the last decade underlines this credo once again. However, if urban residential rents are used as a benchmark, the supposed scarcity effect evaporates: rents have only risen hand in hand with local wages over the same period.

The main reason for the exorbitant increases in home prices thus lies elsewhere. Indeed, the property market has long been supported by one major buttress in particular: central banks. Ultra-low financing conditions and demand outpacing construction have led to increasingly optimistic price expectations among buyers. Even the most buoyant expectations have been exceeded in some cases in recent times. As a result, the imbalances have become increasingly severe.

But the picture is quickly changing. Interest rates—and in turn, financing costs—have climbed in recent months to combat elevated inflation. At the same time, several shocks have rocked financial markets worldwide. Consequently, the willingness to pay for owner-occupied homes is likely to take a hit. In cities with strong population growth, such an adjustment could manifest in the form of a prolonged stagnation in nominal purchase prices and a price correction in real terms—i.e., adjusted for inflation. But as real estate markets rarely trend sideways, this is not the most likely outcome.

Housing Market bubble 202

Rapid housing market growth in Toronto and in the whole Canada for that mater, has created probably unbearable burden for the City and its citizens. But what does that mean? Many predict crashing market while others have a positive outcome to already inflated prices. No one is certain! Canadian housing market staid steady during 2006-2008 recession and has grown since. But is this market sustainable? Nothing can grow endlessly, everything has its limits and certainly housing market. We see explosion of camp sites across Vancouver for instance, census Canada data shows that majority of Canadian households have multiple generation-family members living together, unlike in previous census years.

Toronto housing market bubble 2022
Image: UBS – Report

No one has a crystal ball to be able to predict what exactly will happen in next months or years to come. Housing market remains a hot topic for everyone involved, realtors, buyers, sellers, government……..

Probably the best option for everyone is to collect as much information on this topic as possible, talk to your lenders, talk to your realtor of trust. This way you’ll be best prepared for any outcome that might come our way.


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