Canadian Housing Market Update
Canada’s housing market experienced a minor bump in prices for August-September 2022. For September 2022, the average home price in Canada was $640,480, up 0.4% from last month after decreasing 22% from a peak of $816,720 in February 2022. This small monthly uptick in average price is likely due to changes in composition of homes sold as the benchmark price continued its downward movement over the past two months. Nationally, sales during the month of September 2022 are down 31% year-over-year to 34,989 transactions.
Whether Canada’s housing market is seeing prices stabilise after hitting an all-time price record in February 2022 remains to be seen, as Canada’s average home price decreased 6.7% year-over-year. Among factors that have spooked Canadian home buyers have been rapidly rising Canadian mortgage rates, brought about by Bank of Canada rate hikes. While Canada’s inflation rate has cooled off in recent months, current elevated levels of inflation in Canada continue to put pressure on policymakers to increase interest rates.
The average home price in Canada has now fallen by 22%, or close to $176k, in the span of seven months. Meanwhile, the MLS Benchmark Price continued to see positive annual price growth. Canada’s benchmark home price increased 3.3% year-over-year to $746,000 for September 2022, yet is down by 1.9% month-over-month. If the benchmark home price continues this trend, it will dip into negative annual change territory in the coming months.
While the average Canadian home price is down 6.7% year-over-year, the performance of housing markets across the country has been mixed. Some areas continued to see declines in home prices and sales, while others experienced increases on a monthly basis.
Looking at Ontario, the average Ontario home price was $836,300 in September 2022, an increase of 0.8% month-over-month while an annual decline of 5.7%. The 5.7% year-over-year decline in Ontario home prices is significant in bringing negative home price growth to Canada’s housing market.
The average home sold price in the Toronto housing market (the GTA) was $1,086,760 for September 2022, representing a monthly increase of 1% while a yearly decrease of 4%. GTA home sales are down 44% year-over-year and 10% month-over-month, with 5,038 transactions in September.
Looking at other Ontario cities, Hamilton’s housing market saw average home prices decrease by 2% year-over-year, and Brampton home prices also experienced a 6% annual decrease in prices. The average sold price in Mississauga decreased by 0.5% over the past year, while Ottawa’s housing market saw a 0.7% year-over-year increase in home prices.
The Maritimes continue to outperform the rest of the country in terms of year-over-year average home price growth, as PEI had a 15% year-over-year price increase to an average home price of $393,940 for September 2022. New Brunswick saw its benchmark home price increase 17% year-over-year to $281,900, while Nova Scotia’s average home price increased 7.3% year-over-year to $379,029. Newfoundland and Labrador had an average home price of $288,072, up 4.8% year-over-year.
For major markets in Atlantic Canada, Halifax-Dartmouth had an average price of $498,895 for September 2022, up 6% year-over-year. Looking at home prices in New Brunswick, the benchmark price was $321,600 in Greater Moncton in September 2022, $290,100 for Fredericton, and $274,900 for Saint John.
The Canadian Prairies, once a housing market that lagged behind the price gains seen in other parts of the country, are now benefiting from their relatively slower pace of price changes. The average home price in Alberta for September 2022 was $431,651, up 3.9% year-over-year. Saskatchewan’s average home price is down 3% year-over-year, to $283,792, while Manitoba’s benchmark home price is up 4.3% year-over-year to $335,488.
Looking at Alberta’s major urban markets, average home prices in Calgary have increased by 5% year-over-year to $499,484, while Edmonton’s average home prices had a 0.7% annual decrease to $375,060.
British Columbia is still the most expensive province in Canada to buy a home. The average home price in British Columbia was $927,119 in September 2022, up 1.7% year-over-year and 1% compared to last month. That’s considerably higher than Ontario’s average home price of $836,300. Booming housing markets in B.C. include Okanagan, which has seen average home prices increase by 16% year-over-year, and Kootenay, with a 9.3% increase year-over-year.
Greater Vancouver’s average home price for September 2022 was $1,232,213, up 4.9% year-over-year. Victoria had an average home price of $967,046, up 9% year-over-year, while the Fraser Valley saw average prices decline by 5.3% year-over-year to $952,076.
In Quebec, the province’s average home price was $442,465 for September 2022, up 3.3% compared to last year. Montreal’s averagehome sold price is up 2.8% year-over-year to $562,432, while Quebec City’s average price increased to $349,086 from $335,781 in September 2021.
For other parts of Quebec, average price data is available for the third quarter of 2022. For Q3 2022, Trois-Rivières had a median single-family home sold price of $299,000, Sherbrooke at $340,000, and Gatineau at $435,000. In all these areas, we see a yearly increase in prices while declining prices compared with the second quarter.