How Canada’s Economy Might Fare Under Harris or Trump

November 2, 2024November 2, 2024canada, Democrats, Donald Trump, Elections, Kamala harris, Polls, Republicans, US elections, USA, Voting

The U.S. presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, while primarily affecting American voters, could have wide-reaching economic implications for Canada. Each candidate’s policies would shape the future of trade relations, energy policies, and labor dynamics between the two countries, impacting Canadian businesses, government revenues, and potentially, Canadian citizens working in cross-border industries. Taking in account the weak Canadian economy we as Canadians live through, worsening could devastate even this fragile structure. Many Canadians are not happy with the way our economy is, how expansive housing is, cost of fuel is about $0.50 more expansive than south of the border, food prices are just rising and job opportunities don’t get any better including never moving wages. How could this US election shake up Canadian economy? Would it be business as usual or can we see some improvements or God forbid some deteriorations? Do we have a side we can cheer for in hopes of better living or are we just passive observers hoping for best outcome?

Kamala Harris’s Economic Stance and Its Potential Impact on Canada

Kamala Harris’s economic approach largely aligns with the policies of the Biden administration, focusing on middle-class growth, expanded access to healthcare, and stronger global alliances. For Canada, this stance presents a generally favorable climate for trade. Harris is expected to support programs aimed at economic inclusivity, such as tax credits for green energy and incentives to expand healthcare—a move that might inspire similar health and social policies within Canada. Harris’s commitment to global partnerships may help ensure stability in the Canada-U.S. trade relationship, as she emphasizes collaboration over unilateral decision-making.

Canada’s exports, like dairy and lumber, might face less risk under a Harris administration, as her policies are likely to emphasize market access rather than high tariffs. This could benefit Canadian manufacturers and the agricultural sector, providing a level of predictability that helps Canadian businesses plan and grow. For Canada’s energy sector, which exports a substantial amount of oil to the U.S., Harris’s policies on green energy could mean gradual shifts in demand. Her administration might encourage more environmentally conscious alternatives, influencing Canada to pivot toward green technology investments to keep pace with demand shifts and reduce its reliance on traditional energy exports.

Donald Trump’s Economic Stance and Its Potential Impact on Canada

Donald Trump’s policy outlook is marked by a distinct “America First” approach. This agenda, which favors protective tariffs and manufacturing within the U.S., could strain Canada’s exports to its southern neighbor. Trump has previously applied tariffs to Canadian aluminum and steel imports, citing the need to protect American jobs. Should he return to office, he may reinstate or increase such tariffs on goods including dairy, lumber, and manufactured products. For Canadian businesses, this could mean higher costs of accessing the U.S. market, with tariffs making Canadian goods less competitive compared to American products.

In addition, Trump’s energy policies, which focus on deregulating the American oil and gas sector, could impact Canadian oil exports to the U.S. With increased U.S. energy production and less emphasis on environmental standards, American energy prices might lower, making Canadian oil less competitive. Canada’s significant oil sands industry, already challenged by global shifts toward greener energy sources, might feel the squeeze if demand for imported oil from Canada declines. Trump’s “Made in America” focus could also present challenges for industries like automotive manufacturing, as he might push for more vehicles and parts to be sourced domestically rather than through trade with Canada.

Labor and Workforce Impacts on Canada

Under either administration, the U.S. approach to labor will have repercussions in Canada, especially in industries where cross-border movement of labor is common, such as technology, manufacturing, and education. Harris is expected to advocate for better labor protections, which could indirectly benefit Canadian workers involved in cross-border collaborations by promoting fair labor standards. Her policies could enhance conditions for tech workers and engineers who work in industries deeply tied to U.S.-Canada partnerships.

Conversely, Trump’s focus on immigration reform and labor prioritization for American citizens might tighten the U.S. job market for Canadians. His push for domestic labor in skilled industries could limit Canadian professionals’ ability to work or relocate to the U.S., which would affect sectors like technology and engineering where Canada often collaborates with American companies. This could lead to more Canadian talent staying within Canada, potentially benefitting Canada’s own tech and innovation sectors by retaining skilled workers who might otherwise migrate to the U.S.

Environmental Policies and Their Economic Impact on Canada

Environmental policy differences between the two candidates are profound. Harris’s focus on climate change aligns closely with Canada’s own sustainability goals, suggesting that a Harris presidency might encourage cross-border initiatives for clean energy and sustainable industry. Canadian companies already invested in green technology could find a supportive trade partner in the U.S., particularly in sectors like electric vehicles, renewable energy, and sustainable construction.

Trump, on the other hand, advocates for a more traditional energy approach, with reduced emphasis on environmental regulations. This could lead to challenges for Canadian industries that prioritize sustainability, as they may face competition from American businesses not bound by the same standards. Canada might also see increased demand for green exports under a Harris administration, while under Trump, traditional oil and gas trade could remain stable but without growth in green trade sectors.

Conclusion: How Canada’s Economy Might Fare Under Harris or Trump

The outcome of the U.S. election will undoubtedly influence Canada’s economic landscape. Harris’s policies appear to present more stability and predictability, especially in terms of trade and environmental cooperation. Her support for labor protections, healthcare, and environmental initiatives aligns with many Canadian values and could foster an environment of cooperation and mutual growth. Trump’s approach, however, while beneficial for U.S. job protection, could create friction in areas like tariffs, labor mobility, and environmental standards, potentially creating barriers for Canadian exports and talent mobility, could also create more trade and therefore job opportunities in Canada too because frictions with China is expected to rise.

For Canadian businesses and the government, the election outcome will necessitate adaptation strategies to align with new trade policies, labor shifts, and environmental agendas from the U.S. leadership. Regardless of the winner, Canada will need to navigate its economic path with its largest trade partner carefully, balancing opportunities and challenges presented by either administration.

US elections are set to take place on November.05.2024. Many believe these elections are one of the most important ones for American unity or worsening of divisions. What will it be and how will all this envelope we will see pretty soon. Some polls and predictions are already up and running, yet for the outcome of 2024 US elections we still have to wait for.